The US dollar, had another robust week, rising more than 1.7% to close near 107 price point. While bullish momentum may be overstretched after a year-to-date advance of nearly 12%, the broader outlook remains positive, at least from a fundamental standpoint.
Despite the ongoing headwinds, macro-related data have held up well, particularly from the labor market, with the latest NFP survey confirming this assessment. For provide context, the June non-farm payroll report showed a net gain of 372,000 jobs, well above consensus expectations of a 268,000 increase, a sign that hiring conditions remain solid.
XAUUSD prices collapsed more than 3.8% this week with Gold on pace for the largest weekly decline since June 2020. The drop shows the fourth consecutive weekly sell-off and takes price into critical support of a multi-year uptrend extending off the 2018 lows.
Next week, is expected to be impactful with focus at Australian Unemployment and the US inflation numbers on Friday. The most important economic data releases next week will be as below:
- Tuesday, not many news just the EU Economic Forecast.
- Early Wednesday the RBNZ Official Cash Rate will be released. Later the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report
- Thursday starts strong with the Australian Unemployment Change and Rate. Later on the US Unemployment Claims and PPi will be announced.
- Early Friday the Chinese quarterly GDP will be released and later on the US monthly Retail Sales and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
Major Currencies Performance and Signals
EUR/USD
The euro has decreased over 2% last week due to the US Dollars strength. Nevertheless, the momentum is still looking down and we are still bearish this week.
FORECAST: SELL
Resistance: 1.0200, 1.0250, 1.0300
Support: 1.0150, 1.0100, 1.0050
GBP/USD
GBP/USD’s down trend resumed last week and edged lower to 1.1874 but recovered since then. We are also bearish this week.
FORECAST: SELL
Resistance: 1.2050, 1.2100, 1.2150
Support: 1.2000, 1.1950, 1.1900
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar has gone back and forth during the trading session on Friday as we continue to see a lot of volatility out there. Ultimately, this is a market that I think will continue to see noisy behaviour, but there is a lot of downward pressure on this market, nonetheless. We are bearish on the pair.
FORECAST: SELL
Resistance: 0.6850, 0.6900, 0.6950
Support: 0.6800, 0.6750, 0.6700
USD/JPY
The US Dollar has generally been on a tear against the Japanese Yen this year. But, recent price action is showing signs of exhaustion. We are neutral on the pair.
FORECAST: NEUTRAL
Resistance: 136.50, 137.00, 137.50,
Support: 136.00, 135.50, 135.00
USD/CAD
Canada’s jobs numbers should show a modest slowdown in hiring. However, USD/CAD is set to be moved by external factors, which could lift the pair to the 1.31/32 area. We are bullish on the pair.
FORECAST: BUY
Resistance: 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3050
Support: 1.2900, 1.2850 1.2800
Warning:
Trading on CFDs involves a high level of risk, including full loss of your trading funds. Before proceeding to trade, you must understand all risks involved and acknowledge your trading limits, bearing in mind the level of awareness in the financial markets, trading experience, economic capabilities and other aspects.
Disclaimer:
Market Trends, Charts, Trading Ideas or other information provided by BKFX (Pty) Ltd and/or third parties are not intended as an investment advice and/or recommendation. The information provided is not presented as suitable or based on your specific need. You are responsible for your own investment decisions and you should not trade with money you cannot afford to lose. Any views or opinions presented in this Article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the Company, unless otherwise specifically stated. The Company may provide the general commentary which is not intended as an investment advice and must not be construed as such. Seek advice from a separate financial advisor if an investment advice is needed. The Company assumes no liability for errors, inaccuracies or omissions, inaccuracies or incompleteness of information, texts, graphics, links or other items contained within this article/material.