The Aussie has been more than 40% higher against the US dollar in the last decade than it is now, and a full-tilt global growth would provide many chances for the resource driven Australian economy.
Australian data was insignificant as inflation rose slightly in December as did Retail Sales in November.
American data has described the impact of the new business closures in California, the largest state economy, and modified restraints in cities like New York which has again shuttered indoor restaurants.
The US Retail Sales for December fell in every category reflecting the worsening employment picture as Initial Jobless Claims jumped to 965,000 on January 14th, the highest total in five months. US National payrolls dropped 140,000 jobs in December. It was the first decline since the pandemic lockdown crash in March and April, deleting 22.16 million employees.
Weak US statistics are not pushing currency valuations, despite news that the dollar scored the largest one-day gain against the Aussie since October 28 on Friday.
Ever Since the beginning of December there have been two single day runs that have been barely crossed in subsequent trading: December 10 open 0.7441, close 0.7536; December 30 open 0.7608, close 0.7676. Beneath the 0.7700 support the open and closing rates on these two days form the next four support lines. In addition, the scarce liquidity in December means the rise on these two days was probably accompanied by much less trading activity than would be normal for such sustained moves, leaving the ranges vulnerable to stop-loss placement.
In the broad recovery of the US dollar this week, part sponsored by the moderate recovery of US Treasury rates, the two premier commodity currencies, the Canadian and Australian dollars lost 20 points (1.2713 to 1.2733) and 44 points (0.7752 to 0.7708) respectively. The euro, which is not a commodity currency, lost almost two figures, 1.2266 to 1.2078.
The potential for a profit-taking drop in the AUD/USD to support at 0.7535 is relatively high, particularly if US interest rates continue to soar.
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