The USD/CAD pair has seen the vaccine news supported a rise in crude oil on Monday, and gave the Canadian dollar an compensation to the general market dollar flood, but fading petroleum prices in the latter part of the week returned the USD/CAD to a modest gain by Friday. West Texas Intermediate rose 10.8% to Wednesday, 7.35% on the week.
This week, Canada’s retail, wholesale and manufacturing Sales figures this week are for September and almost two months out of date. Housing Starts for October are important, as the fall 13% in September after the three best months since the financial crisis, but they will not affect markets.
On Monday Manufacturing Sales for September are released, in August were down 2% ,the first drop in four months. Sales are up 1.3% for the six months from March through August.
Housing Starts and Wholesale Sales for September are out on Thursday Starts were 209,000 and Sales were 0.3% in August. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks at a Public Policy Forum
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October is issued on Wednesday. Overall CPI is forecast to be -0.1% on the month and 0.4% on the year.
Lastly, the ADP Employment Change for October will be out on Thursday. In September the firm reported a loss of 240,800.
In the US, the consumer sector is in the limelight with Retail Sales for October. Initial Jobless Claims for the second week of November will also get traders attention, for signs that the rising COVID-19 diagnoses are causing more unemployment.
The Retail Sales for October are expected to rise 0.5% in October following the surprise 1.9% gain in September.
Industrial Production for October should rise 1% after the 0.6% drop prior. Capacity Utilization is expected to rise to 72.3% from 71.5%
Initial Jobless Claims are forecasted to be unchanged at 707,000 in the November 13 week from 709,000. Continuing Claims were 6.786 million in the November 6 week.
Existing Home Sales, are forecast to fall to 6.45 million annualized in October. US Home sales have been very resilient for three months with July’s 5.86 million, August’s 5.98 million and September’s 6.54 million above all rates since June 2007.
The long-term outlook of the pair remains bearish, with a possible rebound at about the 1.32 resistance line only to go down testing the 1.30 support line.
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