The actual pandemic made the global economy stop and caused shocks on the global process of supply and demand, consequence of the interconnectivity of the international economies. Generating shocks from the main street to the markets.
Ultimately, forcing the governments to increase their spending to unprecedent levels.
Probably allowing us to say that the post global economy will be marked with high levels of public and private debt, increase in speed on the 4th industrial revolution and less globalization on the short-term.
That said let us analyse the potential shape of the post-coronavirus economic recovery, whereas in one side we do have the Optimistic curves:
Which is expected to begin on the second half of the year, at least in the countries where it can be considered that the pandemic has finished or is under control. The effect of the disease although is profound will be temporary. On the V-shaped recovery after a strong blow the economy soon return to is previous trajectory. Or on the other hand it will take longer to recover, assuming a U-shaped recovery, for e.g. if the norms of social distancing remain for some time, but eventually all will normalize.
On the Pessimistic Scenario we do have the:
W-shaped-recovery, which can be the case if, after a relaxation of social distancing policies, new pandemic outbreaks appear, and new rounds of policies are implemented. Is possible in line with those who mention that early easing on restrictions.
Or the L-shaped recovery in which the damage left on the economy is permanent, therefore the GDP levels will grow again but at lower levels of GDP.
Add to the fact that the current pandemic situation left developed and developing countries both in recession high probability for this era, the scars that will generate will be strong in social and economical point of view. With a strong emphasis to the fact states most of the time act as catastrophic insurers for their national economies, putting extreme high pressure on the public accounts. And raising the ultimate questions who (and how) will pay the bill?
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